Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on evaluating political and diplomatic statements to distinguish between formal policy announcements and conditional statements of intent, which are common in peace negotiations but explicitly disqualified here.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on evaluating political and diplomatic statements to distinguish between formal policy announcements and conditional statements of intent, which are common in peace negotiations but explicitly disqualified here. The rules permit partial disarmament if tied to an acknowledged process, leaving room for interpretation regarding what constitutes a qualifying commitment. In addition to direct leadership statements, the market permits resolution via a wide consensus of credible reporting, which leaves substantial latitude to the decider to judge whether media coverage confirms that an official policy was established.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance▲ +0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Market explained
This market measures whether Hamas officially commits to partially or completely disarm its military wing in the Gaza Strip by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Hamas leadership officially announces a commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military in the Gaza Strip, either partially or completely, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Partial disarmament qualifies if it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process, such as surrendering a specific class of weapons or disarming in stages or regions. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, and statements of intent lacking a formal policy directive do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying announcement is made by the deadline. Resolution is determined using official statements from Hamas leadership or a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming the policy.
Resolution source
Official statements from Hamas leadership or a wide consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·