Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes U.S. government custody, explicitly distinguishing between voluntary non-detained diplomatic visits and actual detention or voluntary surrender.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes U.S. government custody, explicitly distinguishing between voluntary non-detained diplomatic visits and actual detention or voluntary surrender. They also outline how third-party captures and handoffs are handled. The title omits the specific year, but the rules establish a clear deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on official statements from the U.S. government alongside a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for decider judgment if reporting is conflicting or official confirmation is delayed.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration. Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify. Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into United States government custody by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if U.S. government personnel—including military, CIA, other agency personnel, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority—physically detain, arrest, capture, or assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, regardless of location or duration. A voluntary surrender into U.S. custody counts. Custody by non-U.S. entities counts only if U.S. personnel are physically present and assume control or if he is subsequently transferred into U.S. custody. Voluntary non-detained visits or interactions do not count. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. The outcome is determined using official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·