Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide specific criteria for what qualifies as a statewide moratorium, requiring enacted state-level legislation that pauses or halts permitting, construction, grid connections, or operations of new data centers.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide specific criteria for what qualifies as a statewide moratorium, requiring enacted state-level legislation that pauses or halts permitting, construction, grid connections, or operations of new data centers. Municipal or local ordinances and unenacted bills do not qualify. Official state legislative records and executive records serve as the primary sources, though reporting consensus may be consulted if needed. Note that while the question title omits the year, the rule text clearly defines the cutoff as December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
28%
chance▲ +0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any U.S. state enacts legislation that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying moratorium must temporarily or indefinitely prohibit, suspend, or pause the approval, permitting, construction, connection to the electrical grid or other utility infrastructure, or operation of new data centers, or a defined category of new data centers, within that state. Qualifying legislation includes any state bill that establishes such a data center moratorium. Qualifying legislation must be enacted into law in accordance with the applicable state’s constitutional and legal procedures. This generally requires final passage by the relevant state legislature and approval by the governor, becoming law without signature, or taking effect through a veto override or other lawful mechanism. Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official state legislative trackers, governor’s office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official information from the relevant state government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether any U.S. state enacts legislation establishing a statewide moratorium on new data centers by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any U.S. state enacts legislation by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET that establishes a statewide moratorium temporarily or indefinitely prohibiting, suspending, or pausing the approval, permitting, construction, utility connection, or operation of new data centers or a defined category of them. The bill must formally become law via standard state constitutional mechanisms; vetoed bills that do not take effect do not count. The market resolves to No if no such legislation is enacted by the deadline. Resolution is determined using official state legislative trackers, governor announcements, secretary of state records, other official state government data, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official state legislative trackers, governor’s office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official state government information, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·