Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in September?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before close
- 7 days before close
- Not captured
- 24 hours before close
- Not captured
- 1 hour before close
- Not captured
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define 'normal traffic' using a precise numerical threshold: an IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above 60 for the Strait of Hormuz. Resolution relies strictly on a named official URL and dataset. The market specifies exact handling for revisions, data delays, and early resolution if a qualifying data point is published. Because the market resolves based on the next month to hit the threshold, hitting the target in an earlier month would cause this specific September market to resolve negatively.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether IMF PortWatch data shows the Strait of Hormuz daily 7-day moving average transit calls reaching at least 60 in September as the next qualifying month.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz of 60 or higher with a date falling in September, provided it is the next month to do so. Eligible ships include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships reported by IMF PortWatch. The market resolves to No once data has been published for the final date of the specified month and no qualifying value has been published. Subsequent revisions after data is published for the final date will not be considered. If data is published for December 31, 2026 without any qualifying data point, the market resolves to 'No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.' If no data is published for that date by January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves based on data published up to that time. The resolution source is IMF PortWatch transit calls data for the Strait of Hormuz.
Key dates
- Fallback evaluation cutoff: — Resolution cutoff if December 31, 2026 data is not yet published
Resolution source
IMF Portwatch
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.