Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before close
- 7 days before close
- Not captured
- 24 hours before close
- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market relies on a single, clearly designated quantitative metric from a named official database: the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of ship transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz. The rules define the qualifying threshold precisely at 60 or above, specify which ship classes count, provide the exact web URL, and detail how data revisions and reporting delays are handled. Once a qualifying data point is published, later revisions cannot retroactively overturn the outcome, which eliminates ambiguity surrounding historical data adjustments.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether October will be the first month in which Strait of Hormuz daily transit calls reach a 7-day moving average of at least 60.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 associated with a date in October, and no prior month has already qualified. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, while ships not reported by IMF Portwatch are excluded. The market resolves to No if a qualifying data point is published for a month prior to October, or once complete data through the final date of October is published without reaching the threshold. If data through December 31, 2026 contains no qualifying point, or if January 31, 2027 passes without December 31, 2026 data, the market resolves to No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026. The resolution source is IMF Portwatch Strait of Hormuz transit calls data.
Key dates
- Data publication cutoff for 2026 resolution: — If December 31, 2026 data is not published by this time, resolution uses data published up to that point.
Resolution source
IMF Portwatch
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.