Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules significantly broaden the scope compared to what a reader seeing only the title might expect. A resolution of Yes requires only an agreement or pledge to transfer any amount or portion of enriched uranium outside Iran, even if the agreement is merely a non-finalized precondition to a broader deal or is never actually implemented. Agreements to cap or down-blend enrichment levels do not qualify. Additionally, there is no designated official verifying authority such as the IAEA; resolution relies entirely on the market operator evaluating a consensus of credible reporting to determine whether a qualifying diplomatic pledge occurred.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Iran publicly agrees to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This includes unilateral announcements, agreements with the U.S. or Israel, or pledges made as preconditions for broader deals, even if not yet finalized or in effect. The agreement must commit to transferring, shipping, or placing any amount of the stockpile under the control of an entity outside Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations like Hezbollah or the Houthis. Agreements merely limiting or capping enrichment levels do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying agreement is made by the deadline. The resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by which Iran must publicly agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.