Will Tencent be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify what constitutes a delisting from the Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list, defining the exact official list, baseline entry, and required government sources (Department of Defense announcements or Federal Register notices).
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify what constitutes a delisting from the Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list, defining the exact official list, baseline entry, and required government sources (Department of Defense announcements or Federal Register notices). Explicit boundaries are established for complex situations, such as mergers, corporate restructuring, name changes, or mere enforcement suspensions, preventing ambiguity in how the market evaluates Tencent's status before the June 30, 2027 deadline.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
Market explained
This market measures whether Tencent is fully removed from the U.S. Department of Defense's Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tencent is fully removed from the Section 1260H list by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as reflected in an updated list or official delisting notice published by the U.S. Department of Defense on its official website or in the Federal Register. A removal qualifies even if later retracted, or if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed. It does not qualify if removal is solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, transfer of designation, or if enforcement is merely suspended without official removal. The market resolves to No if Tencent is not fully removed or no qualifying announcement occurs by the deadline. The resolution source is official information from the Department of Defense and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Department of Defense and consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·