Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify what constitutes an official departure announcement, requiring a definitive public statement from the individual, the UK government, or authorized representatives by the December 31 deadline at 11:59 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify what constitutes an official departure announcement, requiring a definitive public statement from the individual, the UK government, or authorized representatives by the December 31 deadline at 11:59 PM ET. The criteria thoroughly define exclusions such as conditional resignations, temporary leaves, statements made in jest, or unconfirmed media leaks. While a consensus of credible reporting serves as a secondary fallback if an unannounced exit occurs, primary reliance on official government communications provides a clear and standard resolution path.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham's departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The departure will be considered to be announced when Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Burnham has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Andy Burnham's departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is officially announced by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Andy Burnham, the UK Government, or authorized representatives officially and definitively announce by December 31, 11:59 PM ET that Burnham has ceased or will cease to be Prime Minister within 18 months of the announcement. Resignations, removals, and other departures qualify, but temporary leaves, pending offers of resignation, conditional statements, and jokes do not. The market also resolves to Yes if he formally leaves office before his scheduled term ends without an announcement, confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the deadline. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The outcome is decided using official information from Andy Burnham and the UK Government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Andy Burnham and the Government of the United Kingdom, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·