Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The title omits the target year, which the fine print defines as September 30, 2026. Resolution relies on an unspecified consensus of credible reporting to interpret several nuanced boundary conditions and exclusions. Specifically, the decider must evaluate whether foreign personnel are engaged in solely humanitarian work versus qualifying logistical support or convoy escort, and whether physical presence occurred inside Israeli-controlled buffer zones or along the Egyptian border, which are explicitly excluded. In addition, individual special operations, diplomatic protection, and airspace or maritime presence are carved out, requiring subjective classification of military and security missions without a designated official source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- High
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether active-duty foreign or international military, police, or security personnel initiate an officially acknowledged ground operation inside the Gaza Strip by September 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if active-duty military, police, or security forces belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to start an officially acknowledged operational deployment by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Operations limited to airspace or maritime areas, entries into Israeli-controlled buffer zones, operations restricted solely to the Egyptian-Gaza border, individual special operations, diplomatic missions, solely humanitarian operations, and unfulfilled announcements do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying deployment occurs by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Key dates
- Deployment deadline: — September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify. Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify. Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.