Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify what constitutes a loss of control, requiring another entity to establish primary military or governmental control while excluding temporary raids, naval presence, or simple disruptions. Importantly, if control is contested, disputed, or unclear by the deadline, the market explicitly defaults to resolving No. However, resolution depends on official government statements and a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive authority, requiring the market decider to evaluate conflicting wartime reports and claims regarding on-the-ground control.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Iran loses primary governmental or military control of Kharg Island to another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority by September 30, 2026. A notable aspect is that disruptions such as raids, bombardments, or offshore presence do not qualify without another authority establishing actual control.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island by the deadline, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established actual control. Changes in control under negotiated settlements, ceasefire terms, surrenders, or transfer agreements qualify only once actual control is established. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardments, sabotage, naval presence offshore, temporary disruptions, or unverified claims do not count toward a Yes outcome. The market resolves to No if Iran retains control, or if control remains contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the cutoff. Resolution is decided using official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.