Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election?
Gotcha risk
High3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: There is a direct contradiction between the binary question asking whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the election and the rules text, which defines resolution criteria for a multi-option margin-of-victory bracket market.
Read the full assessment
There is a direct contradiction between the binary question asking whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the election and the rules text, which defines resolution criteria for a multi-option margin-of-victory bracket market. The rules describe resolving to margin brackets, an 'Other' outcome, and an alphabetical tie-breaker mechanism for bracket selection rather than a simple Yes/No resolution on a Democratic victory. Additionally, while the primary source is official certified results, the rules allow an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting as an alternative basis, leaving room for earlier discretionary calls. A position holder must be aware of the mismatch between the title question and the detailed bracket mechanics.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- High
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election. Resolution depends on the certified election outcome and party nominee definitions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the nominee of the Democratic Party wins the election based on the official vote count. Replacement nominees prior to election day count for the party, while independent candidates do not. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or in specific untied unlisted candidate scenarios. The primary resolution source is the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
The official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·