Iran leadership change by October 31?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks broadly about an Iranian leadership change, but the rules strictly tie resolution to whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader or Supreme Leader. This creates severe interpretive ambiguity regarding his baseline status and what constitutes losing power if his official role is disputed or not formally held. Resolution relies on evaluating a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official register or specific named institution, leaving significant latitude to the decider. Additionally, an announcement of resignation or removal immediately triggers a positive outcome even if the actual transfer of power is scheduled for a later date.
- Wording ambiguity
- High
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and October 31 (ET). This includes being removed from power, detained, losing his position, or being prevented from acting as de facto leader. An official announcement of his resignation or removal also qualifies for Yes regardless of when the departure takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — End of the timeframe to determine if Mojtaba Khamenei is no longer the de facto leader (ET).
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.