Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market follows a standard election outcome with clear resolution mechanics.
Read the full assessment
This market follows a standard election outcome with clear resolution mechanics. It identifies the target election date and sets an outcome based on who becomes the next Mayor of Taoyuan resulting from that election. The rules explicitly exclude interim appointments made before the election and establish a fallback resolution to Other if no winner is determined by June 30, 2027. Primary resolution relies on reporting consensus, with a definitive official backup from the Central Election Commission database in case of any ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
93%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taoyuan as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Chang San-cheng wins the next Taoyuan Mayor election scheduled for November 28, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Chang San-cheng becomes the next Mayor of Taoyuan as a result of the election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves to No if a different candidate becomes the next Mayor of Taoyuan. The market resolves to Other if the result of the election is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Taiwanese government (Central Election Commission)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·