Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taichung resulting from the scheduled November 28, 2026 election.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taichung resulting from the scheduled November 28, 2026 election. Interim appointments prior to the election are explicitly excluded. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with a definitive fallback to the official election database of Taiwan's Central Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. A generous timeout gives ample time through June 30, 2027 before resolving to an alternate outcome, leaving little room for unexpected resolution results.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
21%
chance▲ +1.9 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taichung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Ho Hsin-chun will win the next Taichung Mayor election scheduled for November 28, 2026. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed prior to the election are not considered.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ho Hsin-chun becomes the next Mayor of Taichung as a result of the November 28, 2026 election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Central Election Commission of the Taiwanese government if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Taiwanese Central Election Commission if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·