Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on which candidate wins the scheduled November 2026 election, explicitly excluding interim or placeholder appointments made before the vote.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on which candidate wins the scheduled November 2026 election, explicitly excluding interim or placeholder appointments made before the vote. Resolution relies first on credible reporting, backed up by the Central Election Commission's official database if any ambiguity arises. A substantial buffer period through June 30, 2027, accommodates any potential recounts or legal delays, resolving to Other if an outcome remains undetermined by that date.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
88%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Hsinchu City as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Ann Kao will win the next Hsinchu City mayoral election scheduled for November 28, 2026. Temporary or interim appointments made before the election do not count.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ann Kao becomes the next Mayor of Hsinchu City as a result of the November 28, 2026 election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed prior to the election will not be considered. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Central Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Central Election Commission or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·