Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The market translates the colloquial phrase from the title into a precise, quantitative standard: a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals at or below 10. Outcome determination relies entirely on an explicit, named dashboard from IMF PortWatch with a direct URL. Clear rules govern early resolution upon hitting the threshold, establish a 14-day window for delayed data reporting after the cutoff date, and outline unambiguous instructions regarding how retrospective data revisions are treated.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether ship transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait drops to 10 or fewer calls on a 7-day moving average basis by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait of 10 or fewer for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. A qualifying data point cannot be disqualified by later revisions. The market resolves to No if data is published for the target date without any qualifying average having been published, or if 14 calendar days (ET) pass after the target date without data and no qualifying value has been recorded up to that point. Revisions made after data for the target date is published are disregarded. The deciding source is IMF PortWatch.
Key dates
- Target date: — End of the observation window for transit calls.
- Data publication deadline: — Cutoff for data publication (14 calendar days after October 31, 2026 ET).
Resolution source
IMF PortWatch
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.