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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: YesClosed Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? →

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?

Outcome

Yes

Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.

Final Yes price before close >99¢
Known at
$1.8M total volume

Yes price before close

7 days before close
24 hours before close
1 hour before close

Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

The rules provide clear and objective criteria tied directly to a single specified data feed: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles. The market resolves to Yes if any 1-minute candle reaches a low of $70,000 or below between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Data from other exchanges or pairs is explicitly excluded, leaving no room for subjective interpretation or decider discretion.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

Yes price
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢04:5612:5520:5304:51
40¢60¢80¢100¢Nov 6Nov 8Nov 10Nov 13
0¢50¢100¢Aug 28Sep 22Oct 18Nov 13

Why it moved before close

Up 31 points · 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC

Coin price

The market probability rose from 66% to 96%. A 1.2% drop in Bitcoin's price on Binance during the move hour, bringing it closer to the $70,000 threshold, was the likely driver making a dip to $70,000 more probable.

  • Largest hourly change: 14:00 UTC, 31% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −1.2% in the move hour, −1.4% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 49 days after the move hour.
  • 5 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 65,000 (up), ↓ 60,000 (up), ↑ 90,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 13 Nov 2026, 03:05 UTC

Down 11 points · 10 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC

Coin price

The probability fell from 73% to 62%. Bitcoin rose 0.28% in the move hour and 1.33% over 24 hours on Binance, making a dip to $70,000 less likely and serving as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 18:00 UTC, 33% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.3% in the move hour, +1.3% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 51 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 65,000 (up), ↓ 60,000 (up), ↓ 55,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 17:35 UTC

Up 13 points · 10 Nov 2026, 03:00 UTC

Coin price

The market rose from 58% to 71% as Bitcoin fell 0.4% in the hour and 1.5% over 24 hours on Binance, making a dip to $70,000 more likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 03:00 UTC, 38% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.4% in the move hour, −1.5% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 51 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 65,000 (down), ↓ 50,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 16:07 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin drops to $70,000 or below by December 31, 2026. Resolution relies exclusively on 1-minute candle data from Binance's BTC/USDT pair.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair records a final Low price equal to or below $70,000 between the market's creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Price action prior to market creation is disregarded. Prices from other exchanges, alternative trading pairs, or other spot markets are not considered. Resolution is decided strictly using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart data.

Key dates

  • End date: — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.