Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.5T?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the outcome condition based on Anthropic's first-day trading closing market capitalization, defined explicitly as shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the outcome condition based on Anthropic's first-day trading closing market capitalization, defined explicitly as shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price. The resolution relies primarily on the official listing page of the primary exchange, with a standard fallback to another reliable source only if the figure is missing. Clear contingency rules cover trading halts or shortened sessions, and a firm expiration deadline of December 31, 2027, resolves the market to No if no IPO takes place.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.45 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange's official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic achieves an official closing market capitalization greater than $2.5 trillion on its first day of trading following an IPO.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's official closing market capitalization on its first trading day exceeds $2.5T. Market capitalization is calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by the first-day closing share price. If an abbreviated session occurs, the official closing price of that session is used, or the next trading day with an official close if none is published. The market resolves to No if the closing market cap is not above $2.5T, or if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if unavailable.
Resolution source
Primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if not displayed
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·