Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government or international body declaration, leaving room for interpretation regarding what constitutes territorial control. The rules introduce complex qualifiers that go beyond a simple cross-border incursion: the forces must maintain ground presence for at least 48 hours, establish actual control over land, and avoid multiple excluded mission types like search and rescue, evacuation, or intelligence operations. Additionally, if troops enter just before the deadline, the market remains open for a seven-day extension window to confirm whether territorial control was achieved, meaning the final outcome may not be known immediately at the deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- High
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by October 31, 2026, and establish control over any portion of Kuwaiti territory. Resolution requires more than mere presence, disqualifies operations under 48 hours, and allows a 7-day extension to confirm territorial control.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwaiti territory. Qualified operations must remain on the ground for at least 48 hours. Hybrid or grey zone operations by unmarked personnel count if confirmed to be under direct Iranian state control and establishing de facto territorial control. Rescue, evacuation, equipment destruction, targeted capture, intelligence operations, invited operations, and standalone air, missile, drone, or naval strikes do not qualify. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. If entry occurs before the deadline but territorial control is not yet confirmed, resolution may pause for up to 7 full calendar days. A consensus of credible reporting decides resolution.
Key dates
- Entry deadline: — Entry of Iranian forces must occur by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify. Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait. Only the entry of Iranian military forces into the territory of Kuwait must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Iranian military forces enter the territory of Kuwait by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Kuwait, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting. Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Iranian state and establish de facto control over territory. Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Kuwait and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.