Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The criteria for what constitutes a meeting are clearly defined, requiring in-person interaction such as a direct conversation, exchange of words, or handshake, while explicitly excluding mere co-presence in the same room or proximity without engagement.
Read the full assessment
The criteria for what constitutes a meeting are clearly defined, requiring in-person interaction such as a direct conversation, exchange of words, or handshake, while explicitly excluding mere co-presence in the same room or proximity without engagement. The market has a precise deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary risk factor is the lack of a named official source, leaving the determination of whether an interaction met the qualifying threshold to the decider's interpretation of a consensus across credible media reporting.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Putin are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy have an in-person meeting by December 31, 2026. Merely being in the same room or event without direct interaction does not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in person between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying meetings require both individuals to be present and directly interact, which includes an exchange of words, a handshake, a direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or attending the same event without direct interaction does not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline. The resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·