Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
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- 7 days before close
- 24 hours before close
- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise, objective definitions for rate hikes, cuts, and pauses based on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. Resolution relies directly on official Federal Reserve meeting statements across specified FOMC dates, with clear handling of emergency inter-meeting moves and fallback outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at all three of its scheduled meetings across September, October, and December.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at each of the three meetings (September 15–16, October 27–28, and December 8–9). The market resolves to No if the FOMC executes another defined non-cut outcome. The market resolves to Other if the Fed implements a different combination not listed, or if any rate cut occurs across the three meetings. Emergency rate changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are excluded. The deciding source is the FOMC post-meeting statements published on the Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- First FOMC meeting: — September meeting concludes
- Second FOMC meeting: — October meeting concludes
- Third FOMC meeting: — December meeting concludes
Resolution source
FOMC post-meeting statements and the Federal Reserve official website
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.