Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before close
- 7 days before close
- Not captured
- 24 hours before close
- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact mechanism for resolving the market, defining a hike, pause, and cut based on the upper bound of the Federal Open Market Committee's target federal funds rate. Resolution relies strictly on official FOMC meeting statements across the specified meeting dates, with direct links to the Federal Reserve website. Emergency inter-meeting rate changes are explicitly excluded, and any combination other than the listed outcomes resolves unambiguously to an Other option.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee executes a Hike–Hike–Pause sequence across its September, October, and December meetings. It specifically resolves to "Other" if any rate cut occurs or if a non-listed combination takes place.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate increases at the September 15-16 meeting, increases at the October 27-28 meeting, and remains unchanged at the December 8-9 meeting. It resolves to Other if the FOMC executes any rate cut across these meetings or decides on a combination different from those listed. Emergency rate adjustments made outside of these regularly scheduled meetings are excluded. The deciding source is the FOMC statement released following each scheduled meeting.
Key dates
- September FOMC meeting start: — First scheduled meeting defining the initial decision
- September FOMC meeting end: — End of first meeting
- October FOMC meeting: — Start of the second scheduled meeting
- December FOMC meeting end: — Conclusion of the third meeting and final rate decision
Resolution source
FOMC statement and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.