Fetterman out by September 30, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before close
- 7 days before close
- 24 hours before close
- Not captured
- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves to Yes if John Fetterman leaves office before September 30, 2026, but it contains an important exception: a mere announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, regardless of when that departure actually takes effect. This means an announced resignation slated for a future date—even one after September 30, 2026—would cause the market to resolve Yes right away. Resolution primarily relies on official government statements or statements from Fetterman, though deciders may also reference a consensus of credible media reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether John Fetterman ceases to be a U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania by September 30, 2026. A notable aspect is that an announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date triggers an immediate Yes resolution, regardless of the effective date.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if John Fetterman ceases to be U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026 (ET). The market also resolves to Yes immediately if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the end date, regardless of when it takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is official information from John Fetterman and the U.S. government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- End date: — Resolution deadline in Eastern Time.
Resolution source
Official information from John Fetterman and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman ceases to be U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of John Fetterman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.