Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves to Yes immediately upon an announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation or removal, even if the effective date of departure is scheduled for after the cutoff date or later in the future. The rules also rely on a consensus of credible reporting alongside official German government statements, granting the resolver discretion to determine whether a consensus exists. Additionally, the rules assume Merz becomes Chancellor and state that he must cease to hold the role, which could create confusion if he never assumes office.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Notably, an announcement of his resignation or removal before the deadline triggers an immediate Yes resolution regardless of the effective date.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the market end date also resolves the market to Yes immediately, regardless of when it takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The government of Germany serves as the resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting also suffices.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Yes if he ceases to be Chancellor or announces resignation/removal by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
The government of Germany, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.