Watch for: The market title asks broadly about a rate hike in 2026, but the specific rules strictly limit the qualifying window to increases announced between September 17, 2026 and the conclusion of the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Read the full assessment
The market title asks broadly about a rate hike in 2026, but the specific rules strictly limit the qualifying window to increases announced between September 17, 2026 and the conclusion of the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Any rate increases occurring earlier in 2026—including any hike announced at the September 15–16 meeting—are explicitly excluded and will not count toward a positive resolution. The target metric itself is clearly defined as the upper bound of the target federal funds rate, and the primary resolution mechanism is anchored directly to the official Federal Reserve website with defined timing following the December meeting.
Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
97%
chance
▲ +0.5 pts · 24h
Yes97¢
No3¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes · 1MO 79.5 H 97.0 L 63.5 C 97.0+17.5 (+22.1%)
The probability of another Fed rate hike in 2026 rose from 76% to 96%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
Largest hourly change: 09:00 UTC, 72% of the net 24-hour change.
Closes 29 days after the move hour.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 14:05 UTC
Earlier
▲ +11 pts · 6 Nov 2026, 16:55 UTCThe price rose from 65% to 76%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 18:05 UTC
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate late in 2026. Unusually, rate decisions from the September 15–16, 2026 meeting are excluded, with only actions from September 17 through the December 2026 meeting counting.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026, and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled for December 8–9, 2026), inclusive of rate hikes announced from that December meeting or emergency rate hikes on or after September 17, 2026. Rate changes announced at the September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting do not count. The market resolves to No if no qualifying increase occurs, but it cannot resolve to No until the Fed releases its decision following the December 2026 meeting. Resolution is determined by the official Federal Reserve website or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
The official website of the Federal Reserve or a consensus of credible reporting