US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?
Outcome
Yes
Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.
Yes price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The market title suggests a broad, bilateral ceasefire between the United States and Iran, but the resolution criteria exclusively track whether the United States conducts specific qualifying air or surface-to-surface missile strikes directly impacting Iranian terrestrial territory. Iranian attacks on US forces, naval skirmishes in international waters, airspace engagements, cyber warfare, artillery fire, and intercepted strikes that produce falling debris do not count toward breaking the ceasefire under these rules and would still result in a positive resolution. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting and official military statements, with a defined three-day adjudication window for contested strikes, requiring decider judgment if reports conflict.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the United States refrains from conducting specific qualifying strikes on Iranian territory through September 25, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. The market resolves to No if the United States initiates an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts the terrestrial territory or internal waters of Iran by that deadline. Munitions intercepted or destroyed before impact, fallen debris, cyber operations, ground incursions, artillery, small-arms fire, and minor strikes like FPV drones do not count. Resolution is decided using official information from the US and Iranian governments and militaries, alongside a consensus of credible reporting. If reports conflict, resolution may be delayed up to 3 full calendar days from the first credible report.
Key dates
- Ceasefire deadline: 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on September 25
Resolution source
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.