US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Outcome
Yes
Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.
Yes price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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While the title suggests a general bilateral ceasefire, the resolution criteria are strictly asymmetric and narrow: the market resolves based solely on whether the United States conducts an air or missile strike directly impacting Iranian land territory. Actions initiated by Iran, attacks on US forces or bases outside Iran, naval skirmishes, artillery, cyber warfare, and intercepted missiles do not count toward a negative outcome. Adjudication relies on official statements and a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive registry, with a three-day window to evaluate disputed claims if an incident occurs near the deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds through September 30 by tracking whether the US executes specific qualifying direct strikes on Iranian territory.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States does not execute a qualifying military action against Iran by September 30, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. The market resolves to No if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by that deadline. A qualifying action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike initiated by the US that directly impacts Iran's terrestrial territory or internal waters. Intercepted munitions, fallen debris, maritime territory, airspace, cyber operations, ground incursions, artillery, and minor FPV/loitering strikes do not qualify. Determination is based on official government/military information and credible reporting consensus.
Key dates
- Ceasefire deadline: September 30 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time
Resolution source
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.