Will Saudi airspace be closed by September 30?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules precisely define the target airspace as the entire Jeddah Flight Information Region (OEJD) and require an official NOTAM or government order generally halting commercial transit, arrivals, and departures. However, the market contains an extensive list of exclusions that may surprise participants who read only the headline: partial sector or altitude closures, flow management restrictions, technical or air traffic control outages, weather events, and targeted bans affecting only specific aircraft nationalities or operators will not qualify for a positive resolution. Resolution relies primarily on official Saudi aviation authorities, providing a clear and objective standard.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Saudi Arabian airspace (Jeddah Flight Information Region / OEJD) undergoes an official, general closure to commercial aviation by September 30, 11:59 PM ET.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Saudi Arabian airspace (The Jeddah Flight Information Region / OEJD) is closed between market creation and September 30, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying closure requires an official NOTAM or order from the responsible authority that generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation transiting, arriving in, and departing from the region. Limited exceptions like humanitarian or emergency flights are permitted if commercial flights are prohibited by default. Specific exclusions do not count as closures, including weather/seismic events, holidays, pre-planned closures, technical malfunctions, nationality-based restrictions, partial sector or altitude closures, flow management/ground stops, and restrictions issued by outside parties. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is decided using official information from the Saudi Arabian government (Ministry of Transport and Logistic Services, GACA, SANS) and credible reporting consensus.
Key dates
- Closure deadline: September 30, 11:59 PM ET (year not specified in rules)
Resolution source
Official information from the Saudi Arabian government, including the Ministry of Transport and Logistic Services, the General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA), and Saudi Air Navigation Services (SANS), and a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabian Airspace (The Jeddah Flight Information Region (FIR)/OEJD) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before market creation; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before market creation, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region. A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Saudi Arabian government, including the Ministry of Transport and Logistic Services, the General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA), and Saudi Air Navigation Services (SANS), and a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.