Will Amir Ohana be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Gotcha risk
Medium4 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The question asks if Amir Ohana will be the next Defense Minister, but the rules contain several specific constraints that could surprise participants.
Read the full assessment
The question asks if Amir Ohana will be the next Defense Minister, but the rules contain several specific constraints that could surprise participants. The market does not track the immediate next appointment; it specifically requires the individual to assume office in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections. Any caretaker or interim appointments before or during that period are explicitly excluded. Additionally, if coalition negotiations take too long or early elections shift the timeline, the market resolves to a fallback outcome on February 28, 2027. There are also complex tie-breaker rules involving alphabetical ordering if the defense portfolio is split across successor ministries, with successor status judged by a consensus of credible reporting alongside official Israeli government announcements.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Medium
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Amir Ohana will be the first person to assume office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Amir Ohana is the first individual to assume office as Minister of Defense, or a confirmed successor position holding primary responsibilities, in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. The ministership must be approved by the Knesset via a vote of confidence or subsequent approval vote; interim or caretaker appointments and subsequent replacements do not count. The market resolves No if another individual assumes the office first under these terms. If the portfolio splits among multiple successor positions, resolution defaults to the individual whose full name comes first alphabetically. If no qualifying minister assumes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No Next Minister by Feb 28". Resolution is determined using official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·