Will Israel Katz be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Gotcha risk
Medium4 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market contains several specific conditions that could surprise someone reading only the title.
Read the full assessment
This market contains several specific conditions that could surprise someone reading only the title. It does not simply track the next foreign minister; it explicitly requires the individual to take office in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections, excluding any caretaker or interim appointments beforehand. If government formation extends past February 28, 2027, the market resolves to a designated negative outcome regardless of subsequent appointments. Additionally, the rules include complex successor position mechanics, relying on credible reporting consensus to identify portfolio equivalents and using an alphabetical tie-breaker if responsibilities are split across multiple new roles.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Medium
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Foreign Affairs” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Foreign Affairs are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Foreign Affairs assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel Katz will become the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Israel Katz is the first person to assume office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections, approved via a Knesset vote of confidence or subsequent approval vote. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count. The market resolves to No if another individual assumes the office first under these terms. If the role is split into multiple successor positions, the person whose full name comes first alphabetically resolves the market. If no qualifying minister takes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No Next Minister by Feb 28". Resolution is decided using official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·