Will Elazar Stern be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the first qualifying individual to assume office after the 2026 Knesset elections, requiring formal Knesset approval and explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointees.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the first qualifying individual to assume office after the 2026 Knesset elections, requiring formal Knesset approval and explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointees. Holders should be aware of complex contingency rules for ministry restructuring: if the portfolio is split or renamed, deciding which new role retains primary responsibilities relies on a consensus of reporting rather than a single statutory definition. If multiple split positions share primary duties, resolution defaults to an alphabetical tie-breaker by appointee name. Additionally, a strict deadline of February 28, 2027 triggers an alternative outcome if government formation is delayed, which could catch participants by surprise if coalition negotiations extend past that date.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Elazar Stern becomes the first Israeli Minister of National Security in the government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Elazar Stern is the first individual to assume office as Israeli Minister of National Security (or an officially recognized primary successor position) in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections, approved via a Knesset vote of confidence or subsequent confirmation vote. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count. The market resolves No if another individual assumes this qualifying role first, or if no qualifying minister assumes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If responsibilities split among multiple successor roles, the person whose full name comes first alphabetically qualifies. The deciding source is official information from the Government of Israel, with a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·