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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: YesClosed Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in October? →

Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?

Outcome

Yes

Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.

Final Yes price before close 87¢
Known at
$1.3M total volume

Yes price before close

7 days before close
24 hours before close
1 hour before close

Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

The rules are clearly defined with an objective threshold and a single named source. Resolution depends entirely on the low price recorded in Binance 1-minute candles for the BTC/USDT pair during October, defined explicitly from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last day. The market resolves immediately to Yes if any 1-minute candle touches or falls below $77,500, or to No at the end of the month otherwise. Other trading pairs or exchanges are explicitly excluded, leaving no room for decider discretion.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

Yes price
0¢50¢100¢01:0008:4016:2000:00
0¢50¢100¢Oct 23Oct 25Oct 27Oct 30
0¢50¢100¢Oct 4Oct 12Oct 21Oct 30

Why it moved before close

Up 77 points · 29 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC

Coin price

The market rose from 12% to 86% as Bitcoin fell 2.47% on Binance in the move hour, moving closer to the $77,500 target and making the dip more likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 20:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −2.5% in the move hour, −0.6% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 2 days after the move hour.
  • 6 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 82,500 (down), ↓ 75,000 (up), ↑ 85,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 00:05 UTC

Down 11 points · 29 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC

Close to deadline

The market fell from 23% to 12% as the October deadline approached with only 71 hours remaining, making a dip to $77,500 increasingly unlikely despite a 1.34% hourly drop in Bitcoin on Binance.

  • Largest hourly change: 01:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −1.3% in the move hour, −0.4% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 2 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 82,500 (down), ↑ 85,000 (down), ↑ 90,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 29 Oct 2026, 14:35 UTC

Down 11 points · 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC

Close to deadline

The market price fell from 28% to 17% as the end of October approached with just 84 hours remaining, making a dip to $77,500 less likely as time decayed toward market resolution.

  • Largest hourly change: 12:00 UTC, 67% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.7% in the move hour, +0.3% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 82,500 (down), ↑ 85,000 (down), ↑ 87,500 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 28 Oct 2026, 18:20 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether Bitcoin's price dips to $77,500 or lower during October. It relies strictly on the BTC/USDT pair on Binance using 1-minute candle data, ignoring all other exchanges and trading pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair during October shows a final Low price equal to or lower than $77,500. The tracking period runs from 00:00 AM ET on October 1 to 11:59 PM ET on October 31. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or falls below this threshold during that period. Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle price data is the sole deciding source. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or other spot markets are disregarded.

Key dates

  • Tracking period start: — 00:00 AM ET
  • Tracking period end: — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.