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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: NoClosed Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in October? →

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?

Outcome

No

Polymarket resolved this market to No.

Final No price before close >99¢
Known at
$1.4M total volume

No price before the listed close date

7 days before
24 hours before
1 hour before

Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

The resolution rules provide precise criteria and leave minimal room for subjective interpretation. The market resolves to Yes immediately if any 1-minute candle on Binance for the BTC/USDT pair shows a Low price at or below $75,000 during October, defined explicitly from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last day. The rules specifically identify Binance's BTC/USDT pair via a direct URL as the sole data source, explicitly excluding all other exchanges and trading pairs.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

No price
90¢95¢100¢00:0008:0016:0000:00
40¢60¢80¢100¢Oct 25Oct 27Oct 29Nov 1
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢Oct 4Oct 13Oct 22Nov 1

Why it moved before close

Down 21 points · 30 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC

Close to deadline

Moved 21 pts as 216 wallets traded $117.1K in 1438 min.

Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

The market price dropped from 13% to 1% as the October deadline approached with only 34 hours remaining, making a dip to $75,000 before month-end increasingly unlikely.

  • Largest hourly change: 14:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.1% in the move hour, −0.4% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 34 hours after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 85,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 31 Oct 2026, 13:35 UTC

Down 45 points · 30 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC

Close to deadline

The market fell from 22% to 7% with only 46 hours remaining before the end of October, reflecting time decay as Bitcoin held above the $75,000 threshold with little time left to dip.

  • Largest hourly change: 02:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.8% in the move hour, −1.3% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 46 hours after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 72,500 (up), ↑ 85,000 (down), ↓ 67,500 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 31 Oct 2026, 00:41 UTC

Up 53 points · 29 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC

Coin price

The market price rose from 3% to 56% as Bitcoin fell 2.47% on Binance during the hour, making a dip to $75,000 more likely, the likely driver of the move.

  • Largest hourly change: 20:00 UTC, 87% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −2.5% in the move hour, −3.1% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 2 days after the move hour.
  • 6 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 77,500 (up), ↑ 82,500 (down), ↓ 72,500 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 00:50 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether the Binance BTC/USDT price drops to $75,000 or lower at any point during the month of October.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair records a final Low price equal to or lower than $75,000 between 00:00 AM ET on October 1 and 11:59 PM ET on October 31. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or falls below this price during the specified period. Resolution is determined strictly by Binance 1-minute candle Low prices for the BTC/USDT pair, disregarding all other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets.

Key dates

  • Observation window start: — 00:00 AM ET
  • Observation window end: — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.