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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: NoClosed Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in October? →

Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?

Outcome

No

Polymarket resolved this market to No.

Final No price before close >99¢
Known at
$791K total volume

No price before the listed close date

7 days before
24 hours before
1 hour before

Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

The rules are clearly defined with an objective threshold, clear timeframe, and a specific named source. Resolution depends entirely on the BTC/USDT 1-minute candle Low price on Binance during October (Eastern Time), with early resolution to Yes if the price touches or falls below $72,500. There is no decider discretion or ambiguous phrasing.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

No price
97¢98¢99¢100¢00:0008:0016:0000:00
80¢85¢90¢95¢100¢Oct 25Oct 27Oct 29Nov 1
70¢80¢90¢100¢Oct 4Oct 13Oct 22Nov 1

Why it moved before close

Down 11 points · 30 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC

Close to deadline

The market price dropped from 13% to 2% as the October deadline approached with only 46 hours remaining, making a dip to $72,500 increasingly unlikely before expiration.

  • Largest hourly change: 02:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.8% in the move hour, +0.1% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 46 hours after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 85,000 (down), ↓ 67,500 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 31 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTC

Up 20 points · 29 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC

Coin price

The probability rose from 1% to 21% as Bitcoin fell 1.29% on Binance during the hour and dropped 3.84% over 24 hours, making a dip to $72,500 more likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 23:00 UTC, 69% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −1.3% in the move hour, −3.8% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 2 days after the move hour.
  • 4 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 77,500 (up), ↓ 75,000 (up), ↓ 70,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 00:51 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether the Binance BTC/USDT price drops to or below $72,500 during October. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle Low prices from a specific Binance trading pair, ignoring all other exchanges or markets.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair has a final Low price equal to or lower than $72,500 between 00:00 AM ET on October 1 and 11:59 PM ET on October 31. The market resolves to No otherwise. Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data serves as the sole deciding source, and prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are excluded.

Key dates

  • Period start: — 00:00 AM ET on the first day of October
  • Period end: — 11:59 PM ET on the last day of October

Resolution source

Binance (BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart)

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.