Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide detailed and explicit legal definitions for what constitutes a qualifying statewide moratorium, specifically defining the scope of affected facilities (including a clear 100 MW threshold) and distinguishing mandatory statutory or constitutional bans from agency rules, executive orders, tax incentive freezes, or discretionary actions.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide detailed and explicit legal definitions for what constitutes a qualifying statewide moratorium, specifically defining the scope of affected facilities (including a clear 100 MW threshold) and distinguishing mandatory statutory or constitutional bans from agency rules, executive orders, tax incentive freezes, or discretionary actions. Enactment mechanics are clearly articulated based on standard legislative processes or referendum dates rather than future effective dates or subsequent judicial challenges. Official state government records serve as the primary source, leaving very little room for arbitrary interpretation.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
28%
chance▼ −1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Ohio enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the certified results, regardless of when the measure is certified or takes effect. Passage by one or both chambers, or a Governor's announced intent to sign, is not enactment. Executive orders, agency orders, and other measures which are not statutory or constitutional do not qualify as enactment regardless of legal force. A provision removed by line-item veto is not enacted unless the veto is overridden as to that item. The operative text of the measure at enactment controls; provisions amended out before enactment do not qualify. The moratorium provision must be mandatory on its face. A statute that merely authorizes a state agency or the Governor to impose a moratorium at their discretion does not qualify. A statute that directs suspension of approvals or interconnection upon a specified condition qualifies only if the condition is objectively determinable and is not deferred to be determined by the implementing agency's findings, certifications, or completion of its own proceedings. This market resolves based on the date of enactment, not the effective date. Resolution will not be affected by failure to implement a law, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry that follows a relevant enactment, or an effective date that comes after the date of enactment. The primary resolution source will be official information from the state government of Ohio; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ohio enacts a binding statewide statutory or constitutional moratorium on new data centers (or those over 100 MW) by December 31, 2028. Resolution depends on the enactment date rather than the effective date, and excludes executive orders, local rules, tax incentive suspensions, or discretionary agency authority.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ohio enacts a statute or constitutional amendment by December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET establishing a mandatory, statewide moratorium that generally prohibits or suspends approvals, permits, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers or those over 100 MW. Measures enacted by voter approval count as enacted on election day. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying statewide measure is enacted by the deadline. Executive orders, agency rules, local moratoria, tax incentive suspensions, purely discretionary agency authorizations, and provisions removed by line-item veto do not qualify. Later repeal or invalidation does not alter resolution. Official Ohio state government information decides the market, with credible reporting consensus as a secondary source.
Resolution source
Official information from the state government of Ohio, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·