Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly enumerates which government officials and agencies can trigger a positive resolution, set against a precise deadline of October 31, 2026. However, the rule requires an official to 'definitively state' that extraterrestrial life or technology exists, leaving room for interpretation regarding whether announcements about unidentified anomalous phenomena or non-human intelligence meet that specific threshold. Additionally, while official government communications are the primary source, reliance on a consensus of credible reporting introduces decider judgment when evaluating ambiguous public statements.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether specified high-level US officials or federal agencies will officially confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the President of the United States, any member of the US Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution will be determined using official information from the United States government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Confirmation deadline: — Deadline for US officials or agencies to confirm alien existence by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the government of the United States or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.