Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a broad consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official entity or objective registry, leaving significant latitude to the decider to judge whether news outlets agree on the threshold of regime collapse.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a broad consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official entity or objective registry, leaving significant latitude to the decider to judge whether news outlets agree on the threshold of regime collapse. While the rules outline specific qualitative tests—such as the dissolution of key clerical structures, loss of de facto power over a majority of the population, or a new constitution—evaluating whether an internal shift preserved core structures or constituted a fundamentally different governing system will require subjective judgment during complex geopolitical transitions.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
17%
chance▼ −2.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the ruling regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran collapses, is overthrown, or ceases to govern by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Islamic Republic of Iran's current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by the deadline. This requires core structures like the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC control under clerical authority to be dissolved, incapacitated, replaced, or lose de facto power over a majority of Iran's population via a clear break in continuity. Routine political events, leadership succession, internal coups preserving core structures, and partial territorial loss where the regime still administers most of the population do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·