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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: NoClosed Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in October? →

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?

Outcome

No

Polymarket resolved this market to No.

Final No price before close >99¢
Known at
$976.7K total volume

No price before the listed close date

7 days before
24 hours before
1 hour before

Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

This market features clear and deterministic rules. Resolution relies entirely on a single, explicitly defined metric: the high price of any one-minute BTC/USDT candle on Binance during the specified timeframe. A precise link, timeframe (11:59 PM ET on the last day of October), and candle timeframe are provided, and alternative exchanges or trading pairs are explicitly excluded. There is virtually no room for discretion or interpretive ambiguity.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

No price
99.6¢99.7¢99.8¢99.9¢100¢00:0008:0016:0000:00
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢Oct 25Oct 27Oct 29Nov 1
0¢50¢100¢Oct 11Oct 18Oct 25Nov 1

Why it moved before close

Down 11 points · 29 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC

Coin price

The market probability fell from 15% to 4% as Bitcoin dropped 1.3% on Binance during the hour, making reaching the $85,000 threshold less likely with little time remaining in October.

  • Largest hourly change: 01:00 UTC, 67% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −1.3% in the move hour, −0.9% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 2 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 82,500 (down), ↑ 90,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 29 Oct 2026, 20:05 UTC

Down 22 points · 29 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC

Coin price

The market fell from 17% to 2% as Bitcoin declined 1.34% on Binance in the move hour, making reaching $85,000 before the end of October less likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 01:00 UTC, 50% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −1.3% in the move hour, +0.2% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 2 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 82,500 (down), ↑ 90,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 29 Oct 2026, 08:50 UTC

Up 15 points · 28 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC

Coin price

The market rose from 10% to 25% as Bitcoin gained 0.49% on Binance during the move hour and 1.52% over 24 hours, bringing the price closer to the $85,000 target and making reaching it in October more likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 08:00 UTC, 43% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.5% in the move hour, +1.5% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 87,500 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 28 Oct 2026, 09:05 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a high price of at least $85,000 on Binance's BTC/USDT pair during October. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle high prices from Binance, disregarding other exchanges or pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair has a final High price equal to or greater than $85,000 between the market's creation and 11:59 PM ET on October 31. Price action occurring before the creation of the market is excluded. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle meets or exceeds that price threshold within the specified period. The deciding source is Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data; all other exchanges, spot markets, and trading pairs are disregarded.

Key dates

  • End of tracking window: — Tracking ends at 11:59 PM ET on the last day of October.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.