Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium4 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government publication or designated authority, leaving substantial latitude to deciders when interpreting opaque political developments.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government publication or designated authority, leaving substantial latitude to deciders when interpreting opaque political developments. The criteria define removal from power broadly to include being dismissed, detained, disqualified, or simply prevented from fulfilling duties for any length of time, which creates room for debate around temporary medical incapacitation or internal party disputes. In addition, the rules specify an explicit window starting July 3, 2025, and ending December 31, 2026, so any departure occurring prior to that start date would not qualify despite the broader question phrasing.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Medium
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Xi Jinping is removed from power as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Xi Jinping is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Removal includes announcing his resignation as General Secretary, being dismissed, detained, disqualified, losing his position, or being prevented from fulfilling his duties. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·