Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market straightforwardly resolves based on whether the candidate wins and accepts the party's official presidential nomination.
Read the full assessment
The market straightforwardly resolves based on whether the candidate wins and accepts the party's official presidential nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, which introduces minor discretion in compilation but refers to authoritative party proceedings rather than open-ended media reporting. A specific clarification explicitly addresses what happens if a nominee is replaced prior to the general election, ensuring that subsequent changes do not retroactively alter the resolution.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pete Buttigieg wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president. A notable detail is that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pete Buttigieg wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not affect the outcome once resolved. The resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·