Ilhan Omar arrested by October 31, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear, comprehensive criteria defining what constitutes a qualifying arrest, explicitly requiring physical custody alongside specific procedural actions like booking, transportation to a police facility, or holding for court proceedings. Clear exclusions prevent confusion around warrants, brief detentions, questioning, or searches. Although the rules permit a consensus of credible reporting alongside official government and law enforcement sources, the high bar for what qualifies as an arrest minimizes the risk of disputed outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar is taken into physical custody and arrested under specific criminal criteria by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ilhan Omar is taken into physical custody by law enforcement in any jurisdiction by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and is either criminally booked, taken into custody under a criminal charging instrument, held for criminal court proceedings (not as a witness), or transported to a police station or equivalent facility. Post-arrest developments like bail, dropped charges, or pardons do not negate a Yes resolution. Warrants, indictments, charges without physical custody, brief detentions, questioning, searches, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying arrest occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Yes if a qualifying arrest happens by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Omar is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) she is criminally booked or processed; (ii) she is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) she is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) she is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.