Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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This market relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting to establish physical damage, deliberate intent, and attribution to Iran or a named proxy. Determining the true cause and attribution of undersea cable cuts is notoriously difficult and slow, often involving disputed maritime evidence or lingering uncertainty. While the rules specifically include indirect damage resulting from attacks on vessels, resolution could hinge on subjective adjudication if reports conflict after a three-day waiting period. There is no specific official body named as the sole authority, leaving significant discretion to whoever evaluates the totality of media and reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Iran or a designated Iranian proxy group physically damages undersea internet cables by October 31. Notable aspects include the explicit inclusion of named proxy groups and damage resulting from attacks on vessels, while cyber attacks and unsuccessful attempts are excluded.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran or an Iranian proxy physically damages undersea internet cables between market creation and October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying Iranian proxies include organizations directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis, Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. The damage must be deliberate or result from an attack, including collateral damage from attacks on vessels. Cyber attacks and attempts without physical damage do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying physical damage occurs by the deadline. Occurrence, cause, and attribution are determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with a 3-day review window if reports conflict.
Key dates
- End date: — The deadline by which qualifying cable damage must occur.
Resolution source
credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or an Iranian proxy group physically damages undersea internet cables between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Iranian proxy groups are: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. Only physical damage to undersea internet cable infrastructure will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects. A qualifying incident must be deliberately caused by, or result from an attack or other deliberate action by, Iran or an Iranian proxy. Damage caused as a result of an Iranian or Iranian proxy attack on a vessel will qualify. Attempted attacks that do not result in damage will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The occurrence, cause, and attribution of qualifying cable damage will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, cause, or attribution of relevant cable damage, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, cause, and attribution of the damage based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the damage. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, cause, or attribution of the damage, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution source for this market will be credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.