Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the qualifying subject, the exact entities that must issue the allegation (the U.S. federal government or OpenAI), and the acceptable formats, such as charging documents, court filings, and official on-the-record statements.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the qualifying subject, the exact entities that must issue the allegation (the U.S. federal government or OpenAI), and the acceptable formats, such as charging documents, court filings, and official on-the-record statements. Explicit thresholds are provided for what counts as an allegation, ruling out mere speculation, ties, or contact. Additionally, the rules include an explicit non-retraction clause and a fixed deadline of December 31, 2026, leaving minimal ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify. For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual. A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify. Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, or other U.S. federal agencies or their authorized representatives acting in an official capacity, as well as official statements by OpenAI. Once a qualifying allegation has been made, no subsequent retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI.
Market explained
This market measures whether official U.S. federal authorities or OpenAI publicly accuse arrested former OpenAI employee Abdulrahman Alfozan of acting on behalf of China by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, China (its government, intelligence/security services, or a state-affiliated entity) in connection with the audio recording incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The allegation must be definitive; speculation, suggested ties, mere contact, cooperation, or nationality alone do not qualify. Once made, retractions are disregarded. The market resolves to No if no qualifying allegation is made within the timeframe. Official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI decides the outcome.
Resolution source
Official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·