Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Pay close attention to the early resolution rule regarding announcements.
Read the full assessment
Pay close attention to the early resolution rule regarding announcements. The market resolves to Yes immediately upon an announcement of Zelenskyy's resignation or removal, even if the actual departure is scheduled to take effect after the market's end date. This means an announced future exit would trigger an affirmative resolution before he actually leaves office. For verification, the deciders rely primarily on official statements from Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government, but they also have the discretion to resolve based on a consensus of credible media reporting.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine by the end of 2026. Notably, an announcement of his resignation or removal triggers immediate resolution even if it takes effect later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified end date. It also immediately resolves to Yes if his resignation or removal is announced before the market end date, regardless of when it officially takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The market is evaluated using official information from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·