Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market title asks whether Donald Trump will resign, but the rules explicitly state that an announcement alone satisfies a positive resolution, regardless of whether he ever actually leaves office.
Read the full assessment
The market title asks whether Donald Trump will resign, but the rules explicitly state that an announcement alone satisfies a positive resolution, regardless of whether he ever actually leaves office. Additionally, if he is removed from office through other means or becomes unable to resign, the market will resolve early to No. Resolution relies primarily on official federal government communications alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether U.S. President Donald Trump announces his resignation from the presidency by December 31, 2026. Unusually, resolution depends strictly on the announcement itself, regardless of whether an actual resignation takes place.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Whether he actually resigns has no bearing on this outcome. The market resolves to No if no such announcement is made by the deadline, or immediately resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Trump to resign or announce a resignation (such as removal from office by other means). Resolution decisions are based primarily on official information from the US federal government, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the US federal government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·