Yes
Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
The title refers casually to a ceasefire continuing, but the actual mechanics specifically track whether the United States conducts an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting terrestrial Iran. There are extensive carve-outs, including intercepted munitions, debris, artillery, MLRS, ground incursions, cyber warfare, naval gunfire, and short-range loitering munitions. Adjudication relies on official statements and a consensus of credible reporting, granting broad discretion to evaluate disputed strikes. If conflicting reports emerge, the market can extend resolution by up to three full calendar days past the initial reported evidence to weigh the totality of available information.
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
The price rose from 88% to 98% as the October 24 market deadline approached with roughly 26 hours remaining, a likely driver of the drift toward resolution.
AI-generated · 24 Oct 2026, 17:50 UTC
“US and Iran Continue Indirect Talks on Strait and Assets Proposal”
newsy-today.com · published 21 Oct 2026, 21:18 UTC
The probability rose from 74% to 91%. newsy-today.com reported that the US and Iran continue indirect talks on a strait and assets proposal, the likely driver of the increase as the ceasefire held.
AI-generated · 22 Oct 2026, 20:05 UTC
“US preparing to issue ordered departure of some personnel from Gulf embassies, say US officials”
yahoo.com · published 21 Oct 2026, 19:05 UTC
The market fell from 88% to 82% alongside other related ceasefire timelines. yahoo.com reported that US officials said the US was preparing to issue an ordered departure of some personnel from Gulf embassies, a likely driver of the decline.
AI-generated · 22 Oct 2026, 00:06 UTC
This market measures whether the United States avoids conducting a qualifying military action against Iran's terrestrial territory through October 24 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
The market resolves to Yes if the United States does not take a qualifying military action directly impacting Iran by October 24 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. The market resolves to No if the United States initiates an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran's terrestrial territory or internal waters by that time. Intercepted munitions, debris, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval or artillery fire, and minor surface-to-surface strikes do not count. Resolution is determined by official information from the US and Iranian governments/militaries and a consensus of credible reporting, with up to a 3-day review period if reports conflict.
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.