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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: YesClosed Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in October? →

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?

Outcome

Yes

Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.

Final Yes price before close 83¢
Known at
$178.9K total volume

Yes price before close

7 days before close
Not captured
24 hours before close
1 hour before close

Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

This market features clear, objective criteria tied directly to a single, explicit data source. Resolution depends entirely on whether any final one-minute candle low on Binance's BTC/USDT pair reaches or drops below $80,000 between the market's creation and 11:59 PM ET on the last day of October. It explicitly excludes prior price action, other exchanges, and alternative trading pairs, leaving virtually no room for decider discretion or ambiguity.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

Yes price
60¢70¢80¢90¢15:0022:4006:2014:00
20¢40¢60¢80¢100¢Oct 18Oct 20Oct 22Oct 24
20¢40¢60¢80¢100¢Oct 19Oct 20Oct 22Oct 24

Why it moved before close

Up 20 points · 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC

Coin price

The market rose from 71% to 85% as Bitcoin fell 0.67% on Binance during the hour, making a dip to $80,000 more likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.7% in the move hour, −0.3% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 8 days after the move hour.
  • 4 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 85,000 (down), ↓ 77,500 (down), ↑ 90,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 24 Oct 2026, 10:20 UTC

Down 10 points · 23 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC

Coin price

The market fell from 74% to 64% as Bitcoin rose 0.76% on Binance during the move hour, making a dip to $80,000 less likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 02:00 UTC, 65% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.8% in the move hour, +0.5% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 8 days after the move hour.

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 23 Oct 2026, 17:05 UTC

Up 42 points · 22 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC

Coin price

The market rose from 49% to 74% as Bitcoin fell 0.58% on Binance during the hour and was down 1.21% over the wider window, bringing it closer to the $80,000 threshold and making a dip to that level more likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 02:00 UTC, 82% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.6% in the move hour, −1.2% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 9 days after the move hour.
  • 4 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 77,500 (down), ↑ 90,000 (down), ↑ 87,500 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 22 Oct 2026, 17:20 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a low of $80,000 or lower on Binance's BTC/USDT pair during October. Resolution relies strictly on Binance 1-minute candle data rather than index or cross-exchange prices.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on October 31 has a final Low price equal to or lower than $80,000. Price action prior to market creation is excluded. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined solely using the BTC/USDT 1-minute candle Low prices from Binance. Price data from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are disregarded.

Key dates

  • End of tracking period: — 11:59 PM ET on the last day of October

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.