France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market depends on qualitative interpretations of political speech.
Read the full assessment
This market depends on qualitative interpretations of political speech. The criteria set strict boundaries—requiring an explicit accusation attributing deliberate intent directly to foreign state authorities rather than vague interference or independent foreign actors—but judging whether a minister's statement is sufficiently direct versus merely suggestive leaves room for disagreement. Additionally, while official French government releases serve as the primary source, the rules permit resolution via a consensus of credible reporting, giving the decider discretion to interpret both the media consensus and official statements.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance▲ +1.25 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government explicitly claims that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest that began in France on October 17, 2026, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Such a claim requires an on-the-record public statement issued by an authorized person or entity representing the French government, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest. A statement from a lawmaker speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. Statements that do not attribute deliberate intent to the authorities of a foreign country (e.g., "foreign actors exploited the unrest to spread disinformation") will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the French government officially and explicitly accuses a foreign country's authorities of deliberately causing or facilitating unrest that began in France on October 17, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if an authorized representative speaking in an official capacity for the French government makes an on-the-record public statement by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, explicitly claiming foreign authorities deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest starting October 17, 2026. Ambiguous statements, statements from lawmakers speaking individually or for non-governing parties, and claims lacking deliberate intent (such as merely exploiting unrest for disinformation) do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined using official information from the French government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the French government or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·