Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria directly align with the core question, requiring the specified candidate to win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The rules explicitly account for a potential second-round runoff and provide a clear longstop date of June 30, 2027. While initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, the rules provide an unambiguous fallback to official election results certified by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court if any dispute or ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Jair Bolsonaro will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including any potential second-round runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Jair Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguous cases resolved solely using official results from the Brazilian government's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE).
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.
- Resolution deadline: — Election result must be known by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.