Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome criteria are straightforward and follow the standard mechanics of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, explicitly covering potential runoff rounds. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, but the rules include a clear and objective fallback to the official election authority, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), in the event of ambiguity. A final resolution deadline of June 30, 2027, provides ample time for recounts, certification, or legal challenges, resolving to Other if no outcome is established by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Fernando Haddad wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, accounting for any potential second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Fernando Haddad wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including through a potential second round. The market resolves No if a different candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election outcome is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves solely based on official results reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE).
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date of the Brazilian presidential election.
- Result resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if the outcome is unknown by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) of the Brazilian government if ambiguous
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.